Sabato: Gubernatorial Race A Toss-Up
Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia, is a well-known pundit and forecaster. He runs Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which offers election predictions. In 2008 Sabato correctly predicted all 35 U.S. Senate races and was only off by 1 Electoral College vote on his Presidential prediction. Now he has labeled the Maine gubernatorial race a “toss-up.”
The initial 2010 rankings predict that, if the election were held today Republicans would pick up nine gubernatorial mansions nationwide, but lose three they currently hold. Of the seven states labeled toss-ups like Maine, five are held by Republicans and two by Democrats.
Sabato also attempts to list the “major” candidates for governor in each race, and here he may have slightly missed his mark. However, he readily acknowledges the difficulty of forecasting this early in the election year. Indeed, he mentions Maine as an example, noting that many remain in the “formative stages.”
The closer we get to June, the more clear the picture will be, of course. We will monitor Sabato’s forecasts throughout the year, and let you know if he changes the ratings of any races in Maine (he also offers forecasts for U.S. Senate and U.S. House races). Rather than doing a whole article, we may in the future simply retweet his updates (@LarrySabato) on our Twitter feed (@AugustaInsider). We’ll also keep an eye out for any other predictions on our elections, either from Maine or From Away.
Indeed, we may have some forecasts of our own in the future, as the picture becomes more clear for legislative races.
