Collins, Snowe Likely Voting No
Tomorrow, Senate Majority Leader is expected to bring his version of healthcare reform to the floor of the Senate for consideration. While a final vote will still not be for quite some time, the chamber will take what is commonly called a “test vote” on the legislation. Republican sources are indicating that U.S. Senators Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine (pictured right) are likely to join their GOP colleagues in voting against the bill. This would be a huge disappointment for the administration, which has courted both of them, and a victory for Republicans if they stand united against the bill. While it would not stop the legislation, it would force a re-evaluation of President Obama’s top domestic priority – at least in the United States Senate.
Yesterday we tried to contact folks to divine how our two senators would vote. The one point of agreement we got was that Senator Susan Collins was definitely voting against the bill. As usual, everybody was less sure about Senator Olympia Snowe – but all felt that she would probably vote no, since her concerns had not been addressed. One source pegged the odds at 80-20 that Snowe would vote against it. Another said the White House would probably be better off convincing wavering moderate Democrats than trying to sell it to Snowe or Collins.
The point to remember as we read the tea leaves is that tomorrow’s vote is just the first of many in this process. Tomorrow Senators will be voting on whether to allow their version of healthcare reform to proceed to the floor. If Democrats unite and overcome a filibuster, then real debate on the legislation would begin, complete with floor amendments. Then, after all the amendments were considered, there would be a final vote, complete with the possibility of another filibuster.
There’s a reason tomorrow’s vote is called a “test vote”: it’s far from the final word. Tomorrow’s vote is, in many ways, more symbolic than anything – but if a filibuster holds, it would force extensive revisions to the Senate legislation. While a successful filibuster tomorrow would be a defeat for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) and the White House, it would not kill the whole idea. The Congressional process is confusing, and often frustrating, but it’s important to remember that no matter what happens tomorrow, this just one stop on the journey for healthcare reform.
All of this comes with a caveat, of course. The White House might find some enticement for Snowe or Collins, or they might change their minds, or our sources might all be wrong. Tomorrow, though, after the national media tries to make a big deal out of their vote, remember you heard it here first.
